In a survey of voters “likely to vote” in the 10th Congressional District Special Election conducted by Tulchin Research for the Garamendi for Congress campaign, Democrat John Garamendi is poised to win.
With fewer than 24 days left in the campaign, Lieutenant Governor Garamendi currently maintains a double digit lead over his Democratic competitors, among Democratic and “decline to state” voters across all demographic groups. These are the voters who will ultimately determine the Democratic nominee in this safe Democratic seat.
Specifically, the poll found that Garamendi draws a solid third of the vote (31%). State Senator Mark DeSaulnier and State Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan trail by double digits and are fighting it out for second place, with DeSaulnier garnering 21% and Buchanan picking up 17%. Iraq War veteran Anthony Woods collects 8%; Republican David Harmer gets 5% and 17% of voters are presently undecided.
When voters were given additional information about the candidates, Garamendi’s lead increases significantly, with the other candidates trailing by at least 14 points:
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August 2009 – Horserace Vote |
August 2009 – Vote After Information |
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John Garamendi 31% Mark DeSaulnier 21% Joan Buchanan 17% Anthony Woods 8% Undecided 17% |
Garamendi 36% DeSaulnier 22% Buchanan 20% Woods 9% Undecided 8% |
Garamendi’s lead is built largely on his proven record and reputation on issues critical to these voters: making health care more accessible and affordable; improving public schools; strengthening our economy; and protecting our air, land, water and the Delta. Voters reacted very positively when presented with Garamendi’s long record of public service, including his stints as President Clinton’s Deputy Secretary of the Interior, California’s first elected Insurance Commissioner and as the State’s Lieutenant Governor.
Voters also reacted affirmatively when informed that Garamendi has been endorsed by both President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore.
The survey demonstrates that voters recognize Garamendi is well prepared to be a champion for the people of the 10th district and will bring a level of stature to the Congress that no other candidate in this race can match.
Commenting on the survey, Garamendi said: “We take nothing for granted in our campaign and will continue our grass-roots door-to-door efforts. There is no substitute for speaking directly with voters, sharing my record and explaining how I will use my experience in state and federal government and the private sector to work with President Obama and Congressional Democrats.
“The district’s voters deserve a representative who has the experience and who therefore is ready from day-one to be a powerful voice to the issues that matter most: creating jobs, finding solutions to our broken health care system, fighting for quality affordable education, and bringing the district its fair share of needed federal stimulus dollars.”
The survey sample was of 400 Democrats and “decline-to-state voters in the 10th Congressional District who are likely to vote in the September 1st special Congressional election. The telephone survey was conducted from August 2-4 by Tulchin Research, former pollster for Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher whose resignation to take a position in the Obama Administration led to this special election to fill her vacancy.
For more information, visit http://www.garamendi.org/.
Link to Tulchin Research’s CD 10 Poll Memo: http://www.garamendi.org/sites/default/files/Tulchin%20Research%20CD%2010%20Memo.pdf
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 9, 2009
Contact: Josh Franco, 916-863-6881, jfranco@garamendi.org
